A TREATISE ON THE FUTURE:
A TREATISE ON THE FUTURE:
CONSIDERATION of ARCHITECHTURIA:
Technologies that will Partly Shape Our Urban Fabric.
Thomas J. Barker
This document contains a brief overview of current technologies, from semiconductor fabric, to mention of space elevators, it is hoped that the information provided will pique curiosity into realizing the existing technologies that will be apart of our future. It is believed that solar technology and wind, and the deployment of electric cars is already considered and understood. It also refrains from discussion on e-waste, and lithium procurement (whereby discarded electronics are seen as valuable resources for batteries, and the development of technology. Primarily the use of such things as DC current computer cooling fans, combined and placed on the side of buildings to create massive power sources. Or even the extraction from discarded computers of precious metals such as gold).
These technologies will be obsolete in the future, yet will play an important role in getting us there. As such it may prove pivotal to take notice of them when choosing the direction one may take in ‘future design’ yet by no means do they represent the beginning nor the end of those technologies, not the redeployment of old technologies (travel by blimp), or development of new technologies (sonic screwdriver / teleportation) that will invariably be apart of and shape our future.
Neither does it cover the full scope of geopolitical considerations one must have when deciding on design realization in the future of this planet (Or another, or: Geelong Mk.II Spaceport Australia) If anything this information should be informative, and fun!
Future Infrastructure:
The realisation of the developing future infrastructures in architecture is a very real and of tantamount importance to the developing of future utopian or dystopian ideals relating to urban, social, and architectural growth. Designing for that future represents some intrinsic problems in relation to the now vs. Possibility. This is evident when looking into the past architecturally and seeing where designers, surveyors and architects have stretched their mind and their tools of concept into the near and distant future. In those designs we can see utopian paradises that have raised streets, neo-classical sky scrapers, segregated transport systems, and in the worlds of our imagination: prophetic visions of what has come to pass, alongside what was seen as inevitable.
In a geopolitical sense, revolution (such as communism) that never took root, or in their idealism instigated authoritarian governments. Capitalist revivals (China) where external factors caused the en masse acceptance of social institutions that do not, or did not resemble the ‘hard line’ ideology of their predecessors. Not to mention religious uprising an fundamentalism of those groups who hope to define their own futures with greater links to their religio-political roots (such as, say; the Taliban or Israel, or Brexit). Without judging these groups, the architect must accept their influence on the urban and architectural development of regional, inter-regional and international infrastructure and architecture.
This is readily seen in the dichotomous Berlin from the cold war era. During the growth of western berlin, fundamental infrastructure was taken out in the form of Trams. 20 years after the fall of the berlin wall, the government of Berlin, recognising the value of this infrastructure for the movement of population and the economic gain that it represents, (in the form of a privatise-able infrastructure) has chosen to (very expensively) re-implement those tramways, almost ironically along the same routes of the predecessors that were removed. This correlates with the city of New York, that ran steam – the by product of is electricity generation – through the city in winter, warming apartment buildings, offices and similar at not great extra expense. Whilst this was reduced (or removed entirely) the cost of heating ones home with portable systems grew dramatically as a result. The growth placing extra load onto the power systems, and causing environmental decay. As such, through the success of some eco-infrastructure as displayed by the City of Woking in England, concerns for the lost infrastructure, and the viability of re-implementation have been considered.
This highlights how social deviation from the present may, indeed, affect the future, and allows for a discourse in architecture that is both pro-active and responsive to considered social affect on the life-blood and veins of the city. Geelong itself has cause for come concern, as, over the recent years its proximity to Melbourne has placed various stresses on the once primarily industrial landscape to maintain its position of autonomy. The immense growth of Melbourne over the previous quarter to half century has caused City governments to essentially ‘protect’ the boundaries of geelong from being engulfed by those of Melbourne City. Geelong itself has struggled with instituting viable infrastructure systems that allows it to compete in a modern climate for accessibility, as the city is itself uncommonly spread thin between Corio to Waurn ponds, this creates a unique infrastructure dialect whereby the residents of these regions are actually offered the capacity of transit to Melbourne via rail link or Geelong, as a centre by which to obtain entertainment, work, socialisation, and importantly: retail. Putting Geelong in a direct conflict with its a city, less than 1 hour away that is approximately 2200% larger. Putting pressure on Geelong to maintain its regional identity as a viable alternative City.
Geelong has countered this through the express development of Deakin University, and has also attempted to instil a growth in artistic culture, even applying for a Guggenheim Museum to be built in order to increase tourism. As a possible consolation, the proximity of Melbourne has increased the demand of houses and property in the regional centre as an alternative node with easy access to the much larger metropolis.
The question for Geelong is, does this represent a viable solution for maintaining its independence within Victoria, and, if not; what are the viable solutions that architecture and urban planning can play in reinstating the city as a viable and independent alternative to the behemoth that is represented by Melbourne?
It is expressly the concern of the youth of today, students and avant-guarde thinkers to create affable and intelligent solutions to the impending crisis that Geelong faces as a once competitive, and hopeful equal with Melbourne in the mid-19th century, who, by all accounts was placed on the competitive back foot for two major reasons: The port in Melbourne was deeper, representing a more viable alternative for cargo and passenger ship during the mid 19th to mid 20th century shipping industry, and; although Geelong was closer to the Gold Mines that were intrinsic to growth in Victoria during the 19th century, maps showing that the location of the mines were closer to Melbourne caused international immigrants to consider that city as a fundamentally more opportune trade city.
It is without doubt that the ‘futurismo’ exhibitions at the world trade fares in America during the 50’s were somewhat hopeful and misguided. Cities with monorails, elevated roads, and trafficable green spaces void of cars and rail links have become either queer or curious tourist attractions or simply resemble urban waste lands. Other considerations must be made too: in the early 21st Century, with climbing debt and famine; Mexico City embarked on a progressive government land subdivision scheme; ‘leasing’ to the increasing urban poor arable green spaces within the city limits, selling vegetables at inner city markets. Successfully the famine was interceded and loans from the IMF and World Bank were paid off. Proving that proactive local schemes, relatively feudalistic in origin can have progressive and futuristic applications. Although Mexico has a large population base, and Millennia upon Millennia history of at least partial collectivism to aid in the social expectations of such an urban farming scheme, is it one that may help Geelong set itself apart from the rest of the state, if not the country in providing for alternative systems of sustenance and commerce? Recent growth in the populism of these ideas: organic, farmers markets, local produce; all point to the idea as a viable social alternative, yet one that would be most successfully implemented en-masse.
It has been established that Geelong has had two major directions in its recent history, and, in architecture one most predominant. These are: Concentration on the proliferation of educational institutes that encourage growth in student populations, albeit temporary and cyclical (students once graduated don’t find opportunities within Geelong, and, with the growth of international students whether students even consider Geelong as a viable place of settlement after their degree is another question altogether) Whilst this is a population base that Geelong relies upon, it is essentially transient in nature and proves, if anything the difficulty Geelong faces in population retention. In order to create the sense of a progressive city, Geelong has allowed for a greater densification of population mass by removing height restrictions on buildings, and engaging in an aggressive development strategy of highrise construction. This should cause some concern as the relevant research into the effectiveness of highrise versus medium density both socially and environmentally is one that educators, professionals and academics as consultant to the city should impress upon the cities governance as one of major importance.
It is without doubt that technology currently in development needs to be considered for any reasonable future ideas of the city. It should also be noted that, over the previous two centuries since the development of industrialisation, urban infrastructure falls into two major categories:
1. Implementation of new strategies in order to crisis manage population fluctuation:
a. This is exhibited in structures such as skyscrapers and monorails. Technology that doesn’t work, but is implemented as a sort of ‘urban propaganda’ given the impression of progress and wealth, generally under the motto “build it and they will come” alas the Sydney monorail and the mass expansion of Melbourne Docklands, including the densification of Melbourne infill by assuming that market investment trends represented actual population desires has pulled the success of highrise projects into question as they prove incapable of answering to larger family groups, notably exhibited by young Australians and migrant populations.
2. Development of existing Infrastructure to meet demographic and social demands:
a. This is easily represented through the development of rail links from the steam engine, or tramways from the W-Class Tram. Using existing established infrastructure in order to satisfy the demands of the population. One can also see this as the development of existing technology and represents the major human incentive of development. Humans, whilst they appreciate new technology, are more often than not slow to install it in their lives: The success of Android or Iphones was not in itself the real revolution that some have suggested, as, it was only made possible by the 30 years of technological development in hand-held electronic devices prior to the market acceptance. This includes: Walkman’s, diskmans, minidisk players, analogue mobiles, radio, the Nokia 9110, to mention a small few devices that first, in fits and starts needed to become socially acceptable, and viable before ‘Tablets’ and ‘Smart-phones’ were possible. The major urban infrastructure that supports them has already been established and developed
i. It is precisely this reason that the indian sub-continent struggles with almost 95% of the rural population being under-represented in technological connection. Not because India is, iteself; backwards, but rather because the initial infrastructure that the technology relies on has been poorly and non-uniformly developed. The lack of development in relation to development in other nations is multifarious. For instance: rail infrastructure in the USA was predominantly an internal east-west due to the overland drive west from the east which was closer to europe. In Australia, as a country that was primarily established for agricultural production for the empire and trade, the major rail connections are regional origins that drive into a centre such as Melbourne (spreading from major cities in a fan) where ships could then export the produce.
Geelong also represents a ‘group’ mentality. The successive development ideals of Geelong have been conservative in origin and the city has tended towards aspiring to success of other international and regional centres. While Geelong has a respectable art scene, the development of art in Geelong is a social aspiration but not a social reality. While the implementation of schemes in this dirction are to be applauded, they do not resemble the soul of the city itself, not do they represent the agrarian or industrial heart that makes a large percentage of Geelong. Rather, Geelong insists on following the ideologies of cities such as Bilbao, The Docklands, possibly even Launceston, whereby the inclusion of great cultural landmarks and celebrations hopefully draws international attention.
However, this is a short term – global – phenomena. It is apart of every rural and small city in Victoria who, seeing the success of artistic institutions, constantly believing that this represents some form of economic salvation, whilst it may cause some of the population to visit, the internal competition with other regional centres makes it questionable whether the investment is a valuable one.
It should be noted that public works, which artistic movements are apart of; are almost always reported as being successful from the perspective of governments. Whether they are actually successful or not is another question, as, all governments have the requirement to fulfil a cultural minimum, and should any event draw a number of people to the community this can be considered ‘successful’ whether it provides a long term benefit to sustained economic and population growth is questionable, and rarely is the offset of vandalism, clean up, and general expense of art festivals and institutions reported to the public in full. This means that believing that some bohemian icon will salvage the wreckage of a city is a misconception. In the case of Bilbao it can be argued that it was precisely the name ‘Guggenheim’ that was a lynchpin of success.
It should be asked then, what are the best ideas for a city like Geelong (or indeed any regional Centre) for the future, and what, if there are any, are the current ideas that may help to increase population, commerce, economy and stability of the City?
Boring:
In an effort to increase eco-friendly design and also as a means to combat traffic congestion in the united states, Billionaire and entrepreneur Elon Musk has purchased a large amount of subterranean digging equipment and already begun constructing a series of tunnels in Las Angeles. This subterranean system is developed in order to be a subsidiary system on the existing transit network, whereby cars, by the express capacity of elevators are placed onto ‘conveyors’ and moved around the city at high speed.
While Geelong does not represent a similar concern for the development of such a system, there are some justifications for its consideration.
The Australian climate represents a hostile environment for the use of steel, whose natural proponency toward drastic expansion and contraction in the summer heat and winter cool causes not only substantial maintenance considerations as tracks need to account for this hazard, but the variable nature of expansion and contraction represents a safety hazard whereby above ground tracks have the very real danger of buckling.
As world temperatures increase, as has been recently seen in Australia, to temperatures exceeding 50 degrees Celsius, temperatures that exceed the original design capacity of existing rail structures, the idea that subterranean transit networks become a viable solution for connecting Corio, North Shore, North Geelong and Geelong via the shuttling of personally owner cars may become a serious measure of, not only proving the technological advancement of Geelong, but also ensuring a greater capacity of the city to bring citizens into the central district.
Link:
TED Talk Boring: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zIwLWfaAg-8
Wikipaedia ‘The Boring Company’: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Boring_Company
Nuclear:
Due to the international fear regarding the safety and waste disposal of nuclear power, the use of nuclear power for some time has been on the decline. In recent years the German and American government have been removing their nuclear power stations in order to be seen as pro-active in answering the social backlash of uninformed and concerned citizens that arose during he latter half of the 20th century and the early part of the 21st century.
These concerns fed by images of Nagasaki and Hiroshima, alongside the catastrophe’s of Chernobyl and Fukishima combined with Hollywood and pop culture’s various depictions of a dystopian nuclear wasteland have caused the removal of and incredibly viable power solution. Indeed the removal of these reasonably safe power sources have (amongst increase population and manufacturing) increased the fossil fuel output of those nations that previously relied on nuclear power.
Recently the Australian government in an effort to consider alternative power solutions in order to combat climate change floated the idea of building nuclear power stations as a means to supplement the growing power means, yet, trapped in the ‘disaster’ mind set of generation X, many Australians responded with a great sense of horror.
In a country with few to no earthquakes and no evident fault line activity, the relative stability of the landmass and the excess deposits of yellow cake uranium found in Australia, including the vast amount of ‘uninhabited’ landscape, nuclear power may be an investment for the future.
While the case of Geelong hardly currently requires the kind of output that a nuclear power station may represent, the sale of this electricity to its neighbours, and, the existing industrial context represents a definitive possibility for establishing a small scale nuclear plant, bringing in both concrete works and high end technology based workforce in order to run the plant.
Not to mention the future attraction of three eyed fish and giant Australian fauna.
Links:
Michael Shellenberger (fear): https://www.ted.com/talks/michael_shellenberger_how_fear_of_nuclear_power_is_hurting_the_environment/up-next?language=en
Michael Shellenberger: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ciStnd9Y2ak
Joe Lassiter: https://www.ted.com/talks/joe_lassiter_we_need_nuclear_power_to_solve_climate_change/up-next?language=en
Thorium:
Traditional Nuclear power has an efficacy of approx. 30%. Ye the real issue of any power system, and one that should be understood by architects and urban planners, is that the centralisation of electricity causes an great power loss by the requirement that it needs to be transited along vast distances and encounters resistance from those power lines that carry the electricity.
This has a history back to the first power stations developed in England during the late 19th century, as, being primarily private enterprise the voltages and outputs of the electricity companies varied. In an effort to create a hegemony on the developing electricity industry, public office soon got involved, and much like centralised government, centralised public power systems were devised. While this is a common international trend, it does not represent the most effective disbursement of power.
Thus there is a growing consideration of how to decentralise power, making high-end technologically advanced power systems spread through an area, which would not only increase efficacy but also would represent a ‘cell’ system by which if one power station was damaged the overall damage would be minimalized due to power stratification. Geelong itself has a proportionately higher amount of blackouts especially in summer due to overload and its relative proximity to fire danger areas, as such decentralized power systems represent a technological progression that could see not only Geelong’s reappraisal as a progressive city, but earmark the city in the eyes of the global society as one unafraid to step into the future. The follow on effects of Geelong being considered a global leader in progressive technologies are unequivocal.
Yet traditional Nuclear power doesn’t need to be the solution. A previously unused source of low grade uranium, thorium, that has already been mined - if not refined - in large quantities due to its proximity to silicone and the development of the silicone valley technology industry. Of pressing concern is not so much the fuel, however, should Geelong choose to; establishing a thorium refinery in its urban outskirts would certainly boost the economy and population by an insurmountable amount. Establishing trade connections with the US and Europe, in direct city to city trade capacity; but rather, the development of thorium as a power source also offers Geelong the opportunity to institute the manufacturing of small scale production line power stations to process the fuel.
It may be that rather than the city of Geelong attempting to step awa from its manufacturing origins of the 50’s and 60’s, it accepts its origin and, moving into the future becomes the world leader in power plant production. Whilst the city has recently lost manufacturing jobs and output due to the closure of automobile manufacturing plants, the possibility of appropriating those manufacturing centres to cater for progressive industrial output, catering for international clients represents not only the regeneration of bulk employment but also helps to label Geelong as a centre of ‘climate change reduction industries’ which in turn would encourage international companies, universities and, even, governments to invest in Geelong as a capital. Not to mention the inherent value in contemporary and future tourism as world engineering and tech ‘fanatics’ seek out those places that made the first steps towards future power management, at least as much as school children and world aficionado’s seek out industrial revolution era landmarks: not to mention icons such as the steam engine (locomotion – see Kylie Minogue) like Puffing Billy.
Placement of decentralized power edifice will be a consideration of any future planning schemes, if only to provide for their capacity. Yet some cities will have the benefit of providing the world through their capacity to manufacture such goods. Deep water ports may need to be dredged, or, perhaps there are other viable transport solutions for these factory goods.
Taylor Wilson: https://www.ted.com/talks/taylor_wilson_my_radical_plan_for_small_nuclear_fission_reactors/up-next#t-416024
Thomas Jam Pedersen:
https://youtu.be/tHO1ebNxhVI
Locomotion:
https://youtu.be/5MNHEwBkMN0
Incendiary Transport:
In order to obtain a substantial financial gift from the US Industrial Tycoon Andrew Carnegie (in the form of a library), the Melbourne Suburb Rosstown in 1909 changed its name to Carnegie. Unfortunately the bid was unsuccessful, yet the suburb didn’t change its name back to Rosstown. It did however, set a precedent.
Since the de-nationalisation of space transport in the early 21st century from a primarily US and CCCP based monopoly on the space industry, here has been a profound change and technological revolution in the development of space industry.
The advent of Elon Musks’ SpaceX retrievable rockets, which was previously considered impossible by NASA technicians has excited the world as the prospect of civilian space travel is drawing ever closer. Estimates that the development of the industry will see the dawn of civilian space flight on a commercial scale begin before 2030 means that for those cities that want to be apart of the future international transit network, now is the time to act.
Yet the sub-orbital flight patterns the likes of VirginGalactic aren’t the biggest development, as they work essentially off the existing system of aeronautical flight pattern. The greatest development it in Incendiary transport. By this system, rockets go directly up, and then come directly down, as the earths orbit does a substantial amount of the transit. Yet the access of incendiary rockets is the major issue with creating a viable transport network, and, viable incendiary cargo network.
As commercial space flight approaches the legal issues of national sovereignty, Geelong is in the perfect location with its proximity to Melbourne and, possibly its futuristic manufacturing industry to create the nations first commercial spaceport within the city limits. Unlike Australia, that tends to have its commercial airliners land and take-off at a great distance from dense population centres, cities like Berlin have within close proximity to the centre of the city: major international airports.
Unlike the reasonably dense and well established cities of today, where high land values due to lack of space create an unlikely prospect for large surface level infrastructure projects without encroaching on green space such as botanical gardens and ovals; does the opportunity to establish an inner city SpaceX incendiary port represent a coup-de-tat of future transport for Geelong. If one considers the high value of quick transport to the exceptionally wealthy, the consideration of creating such a prominent infrastructure within the city limits represents – ultimately – the invitation of high wealth commercial and hospitality structures to cater for board meetings, short and long term tenancy, and would encourage main offices of high wealth factors to entertain a presence in the cities that have this capability, in order to cater for their clientele.
As is the case with Kiruna, Sweden, an initiative of the Swedish government to be at the forefront of access to space, the development of the spaceport has also encouraged subsidiary high tech educational institutes and formidably training institutes (even boasting a space-highschool) as such, invigorating the small town as a centre of substantial future development.
Will the Geelong of the future no longer be called Geelong? Should the concil find that building a spaceport of their own initiative too complex or expensive, would it be reasonable for them to change the name of the City to Branson, or Musk? In order to reach out for investment into this advanced technology.
Even more important is the recent ‘advent’ of the Australian Space Agency which almost appears to be a slightly ineffectual addition to the industries of the Australian Government. However, is there scope for Geelong to encourage the establishment of the head office of such a governmental agency within the city, which would surely create higher government investment and an increase in public service jobs, thus increasing both population and economic stability. Should Geelong devise to place a central spaceport, or even one upon the waterfront, enlivening and answering the long development discussion in regards to Cunningham pier, this may indeed force government and the space agency to invest in the city irrelevant.
Links:
Karin Nilsdotter;
https://www.ted.com/talks/karin_nilsdotter_the_sky_is_not_the_limit_why_investing_in_space_still_matters?utm_campaign=tedspread&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=tedcomshare
Spaceport Kiruna:
http://www.spaceportsweden.com
Australian Space Agency:
https://www.industry.gov.au/strategies-for-the-future/australian-space-agency
HAL-9000:
Artificial Intelligence has already arrived in the technological development of the human species. It represents a fundamental unknown in the way that it will affect and direct our lives. From possible prophetic notions of the T-1000 and the eventual demise of the human species, to the development of utopian ideas where humanity is served by think and acting AI. However the industry is not stable, and, just like the blue screen of death has affected any Windows users and, some Mac users, the idea of cyber crime and computer viruses places a very real creative hypothesis on the use and longevity of AI. This is of course coupled with social outcry about the technology, will Geelong be an advocate for government institutions, infrastructure, military and commercial structures that solely rely on the use of AI to orchestrate them? Will the substantial need for computing power redefine our cities as the need for industrial coolants and large computer banks impose on the urban landscape of today? How will our life be in a domestic residential world when computers begin o pre-empt our every need? What will be the role of architects when AI will be able to control our environments for us?
Sam Harris
https://www.ted.com/talks/sam_harris_can_we_build_ai_without_losing_control_over_it?language=en&utm_campaign=tedspread&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=tedcomshare
Peter Haas
https://youtu.be/TRzBk_KuIaM
Nano Technology:
Nano technology represents one of the fundamental developments of the human capacity to alter the world around itself. In fact, the world around us is essentially already built from nano technology. Is it the answer to the architecture of the future, whereby the intrinsically small protein based carbon tubes build and change architecture itself? All that architects then would do would be to programme the desire of the nano-bots to form themselves into the kind of building that is to be placed and, as such, the whole construction process is left to the material itself.
In this world there would be no construction cranes, no need for labour force, and no need for a substantial section of Australia’s Gross Domestic Product industry – the construction industry – to even exist, as after a week or two of project planning on a smart phone could mean the procurement of large scale projects that build themselves as may a coral in the ocean. Will the infrastructure of Geelong resemble that of our amoebic predecessors?
Yet nano technology also represents the possible overhaul of such intrinsic institutions as health care and agriculture. Will nano-tech mean that ones doctor is no more than a room in the house that scans and fixes all the ills and issues that pertain to human existence. Or, at the touch of a button will humans be fed and healed as they sleep? What does this mean for the design of residential and even industrial architecture of the future when essential services are no longer necessary as a part of the urban fabric.
Links:
George Tulevski
https://www.ted.com/talks/george_tulevski_the_next_step_in_nanotechnology?language=en&utm_campaign=tedspread&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=tedcomshare
Dr.Who: Season 10, Ep.2;
https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x6u7txp
Vernacular:
Whilst the idea of ultra dense cities built from nan-robots and policed by AI may be something that occurs in the future, there is of course the other spectrum. The ‘Landfill Crisis’ that has occurred due to modernism and the en masse acceptance of consumerist culture means that humanity not only needs to solve the gross issue of global warming, but also needs to approach the growing crisis of waste. The precedent of how architects may approach this dire situation and lead humanity in the re-appropriation of waste material is, maybe, the most effective direction that the industry can take. In the bronze age in northern Scotland, archaeological digs have uncovered societies that built their homes in no less than the refuse piles of their ancestors.
The midden heap not only represented a valuable mine of useable material, but the landfill itself caused mounds by which populations could excavate and build their houses within. Should this inspire a new wave of village architecture whereby previously disposed of goods are utilised to create a neo-vernacular.
This should be understood in the context of India and China, whose major rural population is now poised o the cusp of development, could a new wave of international migration that Melbourne and Australia are already experiencing case a rapid influx of Asian migrants, who, given the capacity to build, begin to exhibit entrenched regional architectural vernaculars and cosmic philosophies on the existing urban fabric as has been seen in other regional centres such as the city of greater Dandenong.
As climate changes the knowledge of climate responsive design inherent in vernacular architecture, may prove the combined architectural forward movement. As uch a question to ask is whether the architecture and urban landscape of the future will look more like the villages of the past? Does the development of cottage industries such as waving and broom making, combine with a recycling ethos in order to articulate a new architectural materiality?
As the island of plastic that now rivals some large countries in size grows, will architects see this as a resource and not a hindrance? To this effect, will Geelong establish a large ‘plastcile industry’ whereby plastic bags are hand woven into matting and a new form of thatch roofing, plastic bottles are filled with sand and turned into bricks, recyclable plastic is melted and machined to provide replacement for timber framing, Or, similar to the Japanese design of ceramic computer chips, does the tech industry design some form of ‘thinking-plastic’ which negates the mining of silicone and other materials from the earth?
By the adaption of the waste produced in the 20th century, is the building code of Australia completely re-written to account for refuse material, and, as a consequence of this, is there a nee for institutions to exhibit the testing of the physical properties of this material?
If the need for individuals who are practiced at looming pre se is great, will this call for a mass import of Indian villagers to exhibit their prowess as textiles within the realm of Geelong. Re-imagining the urban fabric in medium density vernacular and the kind of material industry and workforce that may require could redefine the working city as we know it.
Links:
Plastic Bottles:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LPxXH7rCSHQ
Weaving Plastic:
https://youtu.be/Hulr1kD5ask
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GkQyP9_1O-M
Wearable Technology
With the advent of wearable technology, is the future one that no longer needs laundries? As such the kind of environment where clothes can power batteries, think for themselves, alter the temperature of the individual wearing them, and even change colour may mean a drastic shift in the way that humans even interact with their immediate environs. No longer will beds need linen, if the Pyjama’s work to regulate the temperature of the sleeper, and this may have some consequence for the requirement of heating houses, offices and institutions.
One of the other implications of course, is, the use of thinking fabrics and materials on buildings. Is the implementation of solar-panel bricks, or even the outlay of ‘solar panel roads’ a possible invention for the future? Who is to say 100 years from now if the very fabric that our cities are made from don’t mediate the environment for us and procure our necessary power, water, and oxygen needs as they react to pollutants and play an active role in the regulation of our atmosphere.
Links:
Genevieve Dion:
https://youtu.be/LDCiCX78lFU
Photovoltaic Fabric (solar cell fabric)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell_fabric
Semiconductor Fabrics:
https://www.techbriefs.com/component/content/article/tb/stories/blog/32785
Interplanetary Civilisation:
It will come as no surprise that with the development of the afore mentioned technologies that the human race will begin to inhabit other planets. The two major considerations are the Moon, and, named for the roman God of War: Mars. Whilst this may not appear to be of significance to Geelong, the idea that space traffic will need to spaceport somewhere, and the consideration of the minerals and ore that will undoubtedly be brought back to planet earth brings new consideration to the city of Geelong and the Infrastructure required for the acceptance and the development of new inter-planetary communication and transit.
This may require the city of Geelong to create storage facilities for the imported materials, but also, consideration needs to be given to the kind of technologies that will be inherent in the colonisation of Mars and their effect on the built environment of earth. This includes the use of closed cycle carbon systems that could radically effect the economic and viability of the future agrarian landscape. Will the possible use of carbon accelerating micro organisms have any drastic effect on the exterior (or interior) built form and urban landscape, how will the city infrastructure respond to the growth of on-site food and bio-fuel production through the use of microorganisms that allow for the accelerated growth of food production?
As the use of fossil fuels is laid into the prehistory of a technologically advanced future is the processing of replacement fuels done in a centralised capacity, or, will the building of the future provide for on-site refining of the fuels and oils that are used at a domestic scale, and that propel rockets, transport systems, and possibly become building coolant systems like those found currently in car radiators. In an effort to effect our climate will the use of liquid fuels be utilized en masse through our cities as the steam once was in New York?
More importantly however, will be the need to supply the colonies on other planets with the materials they need to establish themselves before they can start reciprocating through commercial edifice. As such, Geelong is poised in a perfect position to become a major Australian trading port, given the existing transit lines and its position in relation to the orbital position of the moon and of Mars. In order to enable year round transit between colonies and direct communication, between the planets, Geelong represents the diamond in the belt of Victoria for providing a unique connection with interplanetary communication. As such, due consideration should be given to how and where Geelong offers opportunity for the development of cargo into space. As this industry develops, the old manufacturing centre may find a niche to the maintenance and production of trafficable interplanetary housing.
In the mid-19th century close to 160000 portable houses were imported to Melbourne by ship in order to account for the drastic population boom. S such, the creation of off world colonies represents the perfect opportunity for cities to establish the required infrastructure and industries that will prove capable of mass producing housing to ship to other planets. Is it that Geelong finds itself in the near future creating a central hub of pre-packaged technologically advanced low-atmosphere houses, making it a central node of import of high tech materials and the production of high strength lightweight neo-organic materials such as ‘spider-steel’?
Links:
Mars:
Stephen Petranek:
https://www.ted.com/talks/stephen_petranek_your_kids_might_live_on_mars_here_s_how_they_ll_survive?language=en&utm_campaign=tedspread&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=tedcomshare
Dr. Joel Levine:
https://youtu.be/YzhSmnGcSkE
Closed Carbon Cycle:
Lisa Dyson:
https://www.ted.com/talks/lisa_dyson_a_forgotten_space_age_technology_could_change_how_we_grow_food?language=en&utm_campaign=tedspread&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=tedcomshare
Moon:
https://youtu.be/-dL28N5yPmQ
Xavier de Kestelier:
https://www.ted.com/talks/xavier_de_kestelier_adventures_of_an_interplanetary_architect?utm_campaign=tedspread&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=tedcomshare
Orbital Space Colonies:
Joe Strong:
https://youtu.be/rQNisRKh-iU
Carbon Capture:
The development of ingenious soltions to climate change and the restitution of earth are in plenitude. One of the major considerations is the availability of these schemes to be incoroporated into the infrastructure and olso building fabric of our urban environments. The idea that mechanised devices may accomplich both the goals or correcting the carbon emissions of the previous century and, also shielding our domiciles from the elements represents a bounty of possibility. More than ever the human race is concerned with maintaining and correcting the havok it represents to the eco system and atmosphere. Yet belief that verticle green space represents the actual solution to the problem of carbon emission maybe slightly naive, as, those areas that it is most successful are usually high yield environments that do not pose the same kind of difficulty as the extreme conditions of the Australian summer. As such, architects and planners should think of ways to contrive the reduction of CO2 by the use of the urban built form itself. Whether it be coupled with solar and wind turbines along freeways and rail tacks, and used as highway barriers, or, implemented as an intrinsic part of the built form, the systems used in the future will be intrinsically linked to those of today, whether we recognise them or not.
Links:
Jennifer Wilcox:
https://www.ted.com/talks/jennifer_wilcox_a_new_way_to_remove_co2_from_the_atmosphere?utm_campaign=tedspread&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=tedcomshare
Future Computing:
Whilst the current systems of computers are essentialy static, with the growth of bio-organics and nanotechnology, what will the future systems of communication look like? How will our urban environments implement these systems, and will they look more familiar than we think?
The idea that trees can communicate is old, yet since the 1970’s research into the wy forests work has shown that indeed trees do communicate with one another. This is remarkable for understanding our existing world, but how long will it take for scientists and the computer industry to recognise the implications for modern technological advancement and the management of mass data?
Links:
Suzanne Simard:
https://www.ted.com/talks/suzanne_simard_how_trees_talk_to_each_other?language=en&utm_campaign=tedspread&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=tedcomshare
Genetic Manipulation:
Research into the field of cloning and genetic manipulation may completely redefine the future of humanity as we know it, will humans even require half of what they do now in regards to infrastructure and the built form if indeed they can genetically manipulate themselves in order to do without? What will the stadiums and sports in the future look like when the capacity to fly a broom is genetically engineered into the human species? Whilst it is either science fantasy or science fiction, the idea that humans could manipulate their world so much that they have the capacity to mentally bend atoms and direct energy is simply a matter of time. Consideration to blue-tooth, wifi, gps as implants is of great importnce, how will our cities reflect these new found capacities? How will the society react when the new humans come off the production lines? Will they revolt? Will they welcome the innovation?
Links:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetic_engineering
Perhaps The Opposite is True:
Whilst the above is certainly something to think about, the opposite is true also. The ide that civilisation always tends in the direction of advancement is a myth. What will our future look like? No one can tell. Perhaps instead of a technologically advances space faring civilisation, the human species yet again plunges into the dark ages and a post apocalyptic world is represented in 100 years (or even sooner) as proletariat collectivism takes the power out of the hands of those who currently have it. It may very well be that our future world is nothing like what we imagine. Movies like water world, the book of eli, V for vendetta, the matrix, doomsday, or I am legend may be more prophetic than we realize.
As such some consideration should be given to whether or not Geelong is in a’dystopic’ future, where humans have found themselves trapped in quarantine zones from the zombie plague, or if they simply live in small hamlets within greater disaster areas?
Did the Great Fire of 2056 that destroyed all urban centres and lef 1/100 000th of the population also take away water supply, or did the survivors carve out a completley new form of living an society based off the remnants of our global world? Has the population resorted to the early 19th century south eastern Chinese boat cities in an effort to regain land, as such, an underwater geelong looks like a floating city anchored to the top of Deakin?
The possibilities are endless.
End
Above is an outline of some of the current technologies tht will influence not only our immediate future, but will help to redefine the way that we live. While they are an indication only, they give a small insight into the broad spectrum of how our cities may develop.They also are an instrumental source of inspiration for those ho may be concerned with the future of architecture or society in general, and represent the cutting edge of human technological development. When designing for the future, the time is to act now, and the key is to remember that anything is possible. How we, as humans, react to these developments is entirely another question. What these developments may cause as a consequence of their inclusion into human society must also be considered.
Yet the scope is much greater than the outlined, the use of robots, the invention of human like response in the robot industry, the ever watching Panopticon of CCTV and big brother, the current development of flying cars, using drones as a means to deliver food, medical services (in Africa they have begun using drones to supply urgent organs and blood for transplant) or even bombs! (recent assasination attempts in Venezuela used drones to deliver explosives) and more: all will play a part on the future of our urban environment.
A substantial component will be geo-political trends, as large population groups such as China and India begin to play a far more active roe in the international development. Whose to say that espionage wont have the Japanese developed space lift in the hands of the Chinese within a year or so? What would that mean for Geelong? One important factor to remember is: there will be inequality, war, natural disasters and refugees that will indubitably shape the future, these things are a certainty. How will they effect the future of Geelong, will Australians even be speaking English? Only you can tell.
CONSIDERATION of ARCHITECHTURIA:
Technologies that will Partly Shape Our Urban Fabric.
Thomas J. Barker
This document contains a brief overview of current technologies, from semiconductor fabric, to mention of space elevators, it is hoped that the information provided will pique curiosity into realizing the existing technologies that will be apart of our future. It is believed that solar technology and wind, and the deployment of electric cars is already considered and understood. It also refrains from discussion on e-waste, and lithium procurement (whereby discarded electronics are seen as valuable resources for batteries, and the development of technology. Primarily the use of such things as DC current computer cooling fans, combined and placed on the side of buildings to create massive power sources. Or even the extraction from discarded computers of precious metals such as gold).
These technologies will be obsolete in the future, yet will play an important role in getting us there. As such it may prove pivotal to take notice of them when choosing the direction one may take in ‘future design’ yet by no means do they represent the beginning nor the end of those technologies, not the redeployment of old technologies (travel by blimp), or development of new technologies (sonic screwdriver / teleportation) that will invariably be apart of and shape our future.
Neither does it cover the full scope of geopolitical considerations one must have when deciding on design realization in the future of this planet (Or another, or: Geelong Mk.II Spaceport Australia) If anything this information should be informative, and fun!
Future Infrastructure:
The realisation of the developing future infrastructures in architecture is a very real and of tantamount importance to the developing of future utopian or dystopian ideals relating to urban, social, and architectural growth. Designing for that future represents some intrinsic problems in relation to the now vs. Possibility. This is evident when looking into the past architecturally and seeing where designers, surveyors and architects have stretched their mind and their tools of concept into the near and distant future. In those designs we can see utopian paradises that have raised streets, neo-classical sky scrapers, segregated transport systems, and in the worlds of our imagination: prophetic visions of what has come to pass, alongside what was seen as inevitable.
In a geopolitical sense, revolution (such as communism) that never took root, or in their idealism instigated authoritarian governments. Capitalist revivals (China) where external factors caused the en masse acceptance of social institutions that do not, or did not resemble the ‘hard line’ ideology of their predecessors. Not to mention religious uprising an fundamentalism of those groups who hope to define their own futures with greater links to their religio-political roots (such as, say; the Taliban or Israel, or Brexit). Without judging these groups, the architect must accept their influence on the urban and architectural development of regional, inter-regional and international infrastructure and architecture.
This is readily seen in the dichotomous Berlin from the cold war era. During the growth of western berlin, fundamental infrastructure was taken out in the form of Trams. 20 years after the fall of the berlin wall, the government of Berlin, recognising the value of this infrastructure for the movement of population and the economic gain that it represents, (in the form of a privatise-able infrastructure) has chosen to (very expensively) re-implement those tramways, almost ironically along the same routes of the predecessors that were removed. This correlates with the city of New York, that ran steam – the by product of is electricity generation – through the city in winter, warming apartment buildings, offices and similar at not great extra expense. Whilst this was reduced (or removed entirely) the cost of heating ones home with portable systems grew dramatically as a result. The growth placing extra load onto the power systems, and causing environmental decay. As such, through the success of some eco-infrastructure as displayed by the City of Woking in England, concerns for the lost infrastructure, and the viability of re-implementation have been considered.
This highlights how social deviation from the present may, indeed, affect the future, and allows for a discourse in architecture that is both pro-active and responsive to considered social affect on the life-blood and veins of the city. Geelong itself has cause for come concern, as, over the recent years its proximity to Melbourne has placed various stresses on the once primarily industrial landscape to maintain its position of autonomy. The immense growth of Melbourne over the previous quarter to half century has caused City governments to essentially ‘protect’ the boundaries of geelong from being engulfed by those of Melbourne City. Geelong itself has struggled with instituting viable infrastructure systems that allows it to compete in a modern climate for accessibility, as the city is itself uncommonly spread thin between Corio to Waurn ponds, this creates a unique infrastructure dialect whereby the residents of these regions are actually offered the capacity of transit to Melbourne via rail link or Geelong, as a centre by which to obtain entertainment, work, socialisation, and importantly: retail. Putting Geelong in a direct conflict with its a city, less than 1 hour away that is approximately 2200% larger. Putting pressure on Geelong to maintain its regional identity as a viable alternative City.
Geelong has countered this through the express development of Deakin University, and has also attempted to instil a growth in artistic culture, even applying for a Guggenheim Museum to be built in order to increase tourism. As a possible consolation, the proximity of Melbourne has increased the demand of houses and property in the regional centre as an alternative node with easy access to the much larger metropolis.
The question for Geelong is, does this represent a viable solution for maintaining its independence within Victoria, and, if not; what are the viable solutions that architecture and urban planning can play in reinstating the city as a viable and independent alternative to the behemoth that is represented by Melbourne?
It is expressly the concern of the youth of today, students and avant-guarde thinkers to create affable and intelligent solutions to the impending crisis that Geelong faces as a once competitive, and hopeful equal with Melbourne in the mid-19th century, who, by all accounts was placed on the competitive back foot for two major reasons: The port in Melbourne was deeper, representing a more viable alternative for cargo and passenger ship during the mid 19th to mid 20th century shipping industry, and; although Geelong was closer to the Gold Mines that were intrinsic to growth in Victoria during the 19th century, maps showing that the location of the mines were closer to Melbourne caused international immigrants to consider that city as a fundamentally more opportune trade city.
It is without doubt that the ‘futurismo’ exhibitions at the world trade fares in America during the 50’s were somewhat hopeful and misguided. Cities with monorails, elevated roads, and trafficable green spaces void of cars and rail links have become either queer or curious tourist attractions or simply resemble urban waste lands. Other considerations must be made too: in the early 21st Century, with climbing debt and famine; Mexico City embarked on a progressive government land subdivision scheme; ‘leasing’ to the increasing urban poor arable green spaces within the city limits, selling vegetables at inner city markets. Successfully the famine was interceded and loans from the IMF and World Bank were paid off. Proving that proactive local schemes, relatively feudalistic in origin can have progressive and futuristic applications. Although Mexico has a large population base, and Millennia upon Millennia history of at least partial collectivism to aid in the social expectations of such an urban farming scheme, is it one that may help Geelong set itself apart from the rest of the state, if not the country in providing for alternative systems of sustenance and commerce? Recent growth in the populism of these ideas: organic, farmers markets, local produce; all point to the idea as a viable social alternative, yet one that would be most successfully implemented en-masse.
It has been established that Geelong has had two major directions in its recent history, and, in architecture one most predominant. These are: Concentration on the proliferation of educational institutes that encourage growth in student populations, albeit temporary and cyclical (students once graduated don’t find opportunities within Geelong, and, with the growth of international students whether students even consider Geelong as a viable place of settlement after their degree is another question altogether) Whilst this is a population base that Geelong relies upon, it is essentially transient in nature and proves, if anything the difficulty Geelong faces in population retention. In order to create the sense of a progressive city, Geelong has allowed for a greater densification of population mass by removing height restrictions on buildings, and engaging in an aggressive development strategy of highrise construction. This should cause some concern as the relevant research into the effectiveness of highrise versus medium density both socially and environmentally is one that educators, professionals and academics as consultant to the city should impress upon the cities governance as one of major importance.
It is without doubt that technology currently in development needs to be considered for any reasonable future ideas of the city. It should also be noted that, over the previous two centuries since the development of industrialisation, urban infrastructure falls into two major categories:
1. Implementation of new strategies in order to crisis manage population fluctuation:
a. This is exhibited in structures such as skyscrapers and monorails. Technology that doesn’t work, but is implemented as a sort of ‘urban propaganda’ given the impression of progress and wealth, generally under the motto “build it and they will come” alas the Sydney monorail and the mass expansion of Melbourne Docklands, including the densification of Melbourne infill by assuming that market investment trends represented actual population desires has pulled the success of highrise projects into question as they prove incapable of answering to larger family groups, notably exhibited by young Australians and migrant populations.
2. Development of existing Infrastructure to meet demographic and social demands:
a. This is easily represented through the development of rail links from the steam engine, or tramways from the W-Class Tram. Using existing established infrastructure in order to satisfy the demands of the population. One can also see this as the development of existing technology and represents the major human incentive of development. Humans, whilst they appreciate new technology, are more often than not slow to install it in their lives: The success of Android or Iphones was not in itself the real revolution that some have suggested, as, it was only made possible by the 30 years of technological development in hand-held electronic devices prior to the market acceptance. This includes: Walkman’s, diskmans, minidisk players, analogue mobiles, radio, the Nokia 9110, to mention a small few devices that first, in fits and starts needed to become socially acceptable, and viable before ‘Tablets’ and ‘Smart-phones’ were possible. The major urban infrastructure that supports them has already been established and developed
i. It is precisely this reason that the indian sub-continent struggles with almost 95% of the rural population being under-represented in technological connection. Not because India is, iteself; backwards, but rather because the initial infrastructure that the technology relies on has been poorly and non-uniformly developed. The lack of development in relation to development in other nations is multifarious. For instance: rail infrastructure in the USA was predominantly an internal east-west due to the overland drive west from the east which was closer to europe. In Australia, as a country that was primarily established for agricultural production for the empire and trade, the major rail connections are regional origins that drive into a centre such as Melbourne (spreading from major cities in a fan) where ships could then export the produce.
Geelong also represents a ‘group’ mentality. The successive development ideals of Geelong have been conservative in origin and the city has tended towards aspiring to success of other international and regional centres. While Geelong has a respectable art scene, the development of art in Geelong is a social aspiration but not a social reality. While the implementation of schemes in this dirction are to be applauded, they do not resemble the soul of the city itself, not do they represent the agrarian or industrial heart that makes a large percentage of Geelong. Rather, Geelong insists on following the ideologies of cities such as Bilbao, The Docklands, possibly even Launceston, whereby the inclusion of great cultural landmarks and celebrations hopefully draws international attention.
However, this is a short term – global – phenomena. It is apart of every rural and small city in Victoria who, seeing the success of artistic institutions, constantly believing that this represents some form of economic salvation, whilst it may cause some of the population to visit, the internal competition with other regional centres makes it questionable whether the investment is a valuable one.
It should be noted that public works, which artistic movements are apart of; are almost always reported as being successful from the perspective of governments. Whether they are actually successful or not is another question, as, all governments have the requirement to fulfil a cultural minimum, and should any event draw a number of people to the community this can be considered ‘successful’ whether it provides a long term benefit to sustained economic and population growth is questionable, and rarely is the offset of vandalism, clean up, and general expense of art festivals and institutions reported to the public in full. This means that believing that some bohemian icon will salvage the wreckage of a city is a misconception. In the case of Bilbao it can be argued that it was precisely the name ‘Guggenheim’ that was a lynchpin of success.
It should be asked then, what are the best ideas for a city like Geelong (or indeed any regional Centre) for the future, and what, if there are any, are the current ideas that may help to increase population, commerce, economy and stability of the City?
Boring:
In an effort to increase eco-friendly design and also as a means to combat traffic congestion in the united states, Billionaire and entrepreneur Elon Musk has purchased a large amount of subterranean digging equipment and already begun constructing a series of tunnels in Las Angeles. This subterranean system is developed in order to be a subsidiary system on the existing transit network, whereby cars, by the express capacity of elevators are placed onto ‘conveyors’ and moved around the city at high speed.
While Geelong does not represent a similar concern for the development of such a system, there are some justifications for its consideration.
The Australian climate represents a hostile environment for the use of steel, whose natural proponency toward drastic expansion and contraction in the summer heat and winter cool causes not only substantial maintenance considerations as tracks need to account for this hazard, but the variable nature of expansion and contraction represents a safety hazard whereby above ground tracks have the very real danger of buckling.
As world temperatures increase, as has been recently seen in Australia, to temperatures exceeding 50 degrees Celsius, temperatures that exceed the original design capacity of existing rail structures, the idea that subterranean transit networks become a viable solution for connecting Corio, North Shore, North Geelong and Geelong via the shuttling of personally owner cars may become a serious measure of, not only proving the technological advancement of Geelong, but also ensuring a greater capacity of the city to bring citizens into the central district.
Link:
TED Talk Boring: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zIwLWfaAg-8
Wikipaedia ‘The Boring Company’: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Boring_Company
Nuclear:
Due to the international fear regarding the safety and waste disposal of nuclear power, the use of nuclear power for some time has been on the decline. In recent years the German and American government have been removing their nuclear power stations in order to be seen as pro-active in answering the social backlash of uninformed and concerned citizens that arose during he latter half of the 20th century and the early part of the 21st century.
These concerns fed by images of Nagasaki and Hiroshima, alongside the catastrophe’s of Chernobyl and Fukishima combined with Hollywood and pop culture’s various depictions of a dystopian nuclear wasteland have caused the removal of and incredibly viable power solution. Indeed the removal of these reasonably safe power sources have (amongst increase population and manufacturing) increased the fossil fuel output of those nations that previously relied on nuclear power.
Recently the Australian government in an effort to consider alternative power solutions in order to combat climate change floated the idea of building nuclear power stations as a means to supplement the growing power means, yet, trapped in the ‘disaster’ mind set of generation X, many Australians responded with a great sense of horror.
In a country with few to no earthquakes and no evident fault line activity, the relative stability of the landmass and the excess deposits of yellow cake uranium found in Australia, including the vast amount of ‘uninhabited’ landscape, nuclear power may be an investment for the future.
While the case of Geelong hardly currently requires the kind of output that a nuclear power station may represent, the sale of this electricity to its neighbours, and, the existing industrial context represents a definitive possibility for establishing a small scale nuclear plant, bringing in both concrete works and high end technology based workforce in order to run the plant.
Not to mention the future attraction of three eyed fish and giant Australian fauna.
Links:
Michael Shellenberger (fear): https://www.ted.com/talks/michael_shellenberger_how_fear_of_nuclear_power_is_hurting_the_environment/up-next?language=en
Michael Shellenberger: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ciStnd9Y2ak
Joe Lassiter: https://www.ted.com/talks/joe_lassiter_we_need_nuclear_power_to_solve_climate_change/up-next?language=en
Thorium:
Traditional Nuclear power has an efficacy of approx. 30%. Ye the real issue of any power system, and one that should be understood by architects and urban planners, is that the centralisation of electricity causes an great power loss by the requirement that it needs to be transited along vast distances and encounters resistance from those power lines that carry the electricity.
This has a history back to the first power stations developed in England during the late 19th century, as, being primarily private enterprise the voltages and outputs of the electricity companies varied. In an effort to create a hegemony on the developing electricity industry, public office soon got involved, and much like centralised government, centralised public power systems were devised. While this is a common international trend, it does not represent the most effective disbursement of power.
Thus there is a growing consideration of how to decentralise power, making high-end technologically advanced power systems spread through an area, which would not only increase efficacy but also would represent a ‘cell’ system by which if one power station was damaged the overall damage would be minimalized due to power stratification. Geelong itself has a proportionately higher amount of blackouts especially in summer due to overload and its relative proximity to fire danger areas, as such decentralized power systems represent a technological progression that could see not only Geelong’s reappraisal as a progressive city, but earmark the city in the eyes of the global society as one unafraid to step into the future. The follow on effects of Geelong being considered a global leader in progressive technologies are unequivocal.
Yet traditional Nuclear power doesn’t need to be the solution. A previously unused source of low grade uranium, thorium, that has already been mined - if not refined - in large quantities due to its proximity to silicone and the development of the silicone valley technology industry. Of pressing concern is not so much the fuel, however, should Geelong choose to; establishing a thorium refinery in its urban outskirts would certainly boost the economy and population by an insurmountable amount. Establishing trade connections with the US and Europe, in direct city to city trade capacity; but rather, the development of thorium as a power source also offers Geelong the opportunity to institute the manufacturing of small scale production line power stations to process the fuel.
It may be that rather than the city of Geelong attempting to step awa from its manufacturing origins of the 50’s and 60’s, it accepts its origin and, moving into the future becomes the world leader in power plant production. Whilst the city has recently lost manufacturing jobs and output due to the closure of automobile manufacturing plants, the possibility of appropriating those manufacturing centres to cater for progressive industrial output, catering for international clients represents not only the regeneration of bulk employment but also helps to label Geelong as a centre of ‘climate change reduction industries’ which in turn would encourage international companies, universities and, even, governments to invest in Geelong as a capital. Not to mention the inherent value in contemporary and future tourism as world engineering and tech ‘fanatics’ seek out those places that made the first steps towards future power management, at least as much as school children and world aficionado’s seek out industrial revolution era landmarks: not to mention icons such as the steam engine (locomotion – see Kylie Minogue) like Puffing Billy.
Placement of decentralized power edifice will be a consideration of any future planning schemes, if only to provide for their capacity. Yet some cities will have the benefit of providing the world through their capacity to manufacture such goods. Deep water ports may need to be dredged, or, perhaps there are other viable transport solutions for these factory goods.
Taylor Wilson: https://www.ted.com/talks/taylor_wilson_my_radical_plan_for_small_nuclear_fission_reactors/up-next#t-416024
Thomas Jam Pedersen:
https://youtu.be/tHO1ebNxhVI
Locomotion:
https://youtu.be/5MNHEwBkMN0
Incendiary Transport:
In order to obtain a substantial financial gift from the US Industrial Tycoon Andrew Carnegie (in the form of a library), the Melbourne Suburb Rosstown in 1909 changed its name to Carnegie. Unfortunately the bid was unsuccessful, yet the suburb didn’t change its name back to Rosstown. It did however, set a precedent.
Since the de-nationalisation of space transport in the early 21st century from a primarily US and CCCP based monopoly on the space industry, here has been a profound change and technological revolution in the development of space industry.
The advent of Elon Musks’ SpaceX retrievable rockets, which was previously considered impossible by NASA technicians has excited the world as the prospect of civilian space travel is drawing ever closer. Estimates that the development of the industry will see the dawn of civilian space flight on a commercial scale begin before 2030 means that for those cities that want to be apart of the future international transit network, now is the time to act.
Yet the sub-orbital flight patterns the likes of VirginGalactic aren’t the biggest development, as they work essentially off the existing system of aeronautical flight pattern. The greatest development it in Incendiary transport. By this system, rockets go directly up, and then come directly down, as the earths orbit does a substantial amount of the transit. Yet the access of incendiary rockets is the major issue with creating a viable transport network, and, viable incendiary cargo network.
As commercial space flight approaches the legal issues of national sovereignty, Geelong is in the perfect location with its proximity to Melbourne and, possibly its futuristic manufacturing industry to create the nations first commercial spaceport within the city limits. Unlike Australia, that tends to have its commercial airliners land and take-off at a great distance from dense population centres, cities like Berlin have within close proximity to the centre of the city: major international airports.
Unlike the reasonably dense and well established cities of today, where high land values due to lack of space create an unlikely prospect for large surface level infrastructure projects without encroaching on green space such as botanical gardens and ovals; does the opportunity to establish an inner city SpaceX incendiary port represent a coup-de-tat of future transport for Geelong. If one considers the high value of quick transport to the exceptionally wealthy, the consideration of creating such a prominent infrastructure within the city limits represents – ultimately – the invitation of high wealth commercial and hospitality structures to cater for board meetings, short and long term tenancy, and would encourage main offices of high wealth factors to entertain a presence in the cities that have this capability, in order to cater for their clientele.
As is the case with Kiruna, Sweden, an initiative of the Swedish government to be at the forefront of access to space, the development of the spaceport has also encouraged subsidiary high tech educational institutes and formidably training institutes (even boasting a space-highschool) as such, invigorating the small town as a centre of substantial future development.
Will the Geelong of the future no longer be called Geelong? Should the concil find that building a spaceport of their own initiative too complex or expensive, would it be reasonable for them to change the name of the City to Branson, or Musk? In order to reach out for investment into this advanced technology.
Even more important is the recent ‘advent’ of the Australian Space Agency which almost appears to be a slightly ineffectual addition to the industries of the Australian Government. However, is there scope for Geelong to encourage the establishment of the head office of such a governmental agency within the city, which would surely create higher government investment and an increase in public service jobs, thus increasing both population and economic stability. Should Geelong devise to place a central spaceport, or even one upon the waterfront, enlivening and answering the long development discussion in regards to Cunningham pier, this may indeed force government and the space agency to invest in the city irrelevant.
Links:
Karin Nilsdotter;
https://www.ted.com/talks/karin_nilsdotter_the_sky_is_not_the_limit_why_investing_in_space_still_matters?utm_campaign=tedspread&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=tedcomshare
Spaceport Kiruna:
http://www.spaceportsweden.com
Australian Space Agency:
https://www.industry.gov.au/strategies-for-the-future/australian-space-agency
HAL-9000:
Artificial Intelligence has already arrived in the technological development of the human species. It represents a fundamental unknown in the way that it will affect and direct our lives. From possible prophetic notions of the T-1000 and the eventual demise of the human species, to the development of utopian ideas where humanity is served by think and acting AI. However the industry is not stable, and, just like the blue screen of death has affected any Windows users and, some Mac users, the idea of cyber crime and computer viruses places a very real creative hypothesis on the use and longevity of AI. This is of course coupled with social outcry about the technology, will Geelong be an advocate for government institutions, infrastructure, military and commercial structures that solely rely on the use of AI to orchestrate them? Will the substantial need for computing power redefine our cities as the need for industrial coolants and large computer banks impose on the urban landscape of today? How will our life be in a domestic residential world when computers begin o pre-empt our every need? What will be the role of architects when AI will be able to control our environments for us?
Sam Harris
https://www.ted.com/talks/sam_harris_can_we_build_ai_without_losing_control_over_it?language=en&utm_campaign=tedspread&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=tedcomshare
Peter Haas
https://youtu.be/TRzBk_KuIaM
Nano Technology:
Nano technology represents one of the fundamental developments of the human capacity to alter the world around itself. In fact, the world around us is essentially already built from nano technology. Is it the answer to the architecture of the future, whereby the intrinsically small protein based carbon tubes build and change architecture itself? All that architects then would do would be to programme the desire of the nano-bots to form themselves into the kind of building that is to be placed and, as such, the whole construction process is left to the material itself.
In this world there would be no construction cranes, no need for labour force, and no need for a substantial section of Australia’s Gross Domestic Product industry – the construction industry – to even exist, as after a week or two of project planning on a smart phone could mean the procurement of large scale projects that build themselves as may a coral in the ocean. Will the infrastructure of Geelong resemble that of our amoebic predecessors?
Yet nano technology also represents the possible overhaul of such intrinsic institutions as health care and agriculture. Will nano-tech mean that ones doctor is no more than a room in the house that scans and fixes all the ills and issues that pertain to human existence. Or, at the touch of a button will humans be fed and healed as they sleep? What does this mean for the design of residential and even industrial architecture of the future when essential services are no longer necessary as a part of the urban fabric.
Links:
George Tulevski
https://www.ted.com/talks/george_tulevski_the_next_step_in_nanotechnology?language=en&utm_campaign=tedspread&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=tedcomshare
Dr.Who: Season 10, Ep.2;
https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x6u7txp
Vernacular:
Whilst the idea of ultra dense cities built from nan-robots and policed by AI may be something that occurs in the future, there is of course the other spectrum. The ‘Landfill Crisis’ that has occurred due to modernism and the en masse acceptance of consumerist culture means that humanity not only needs to solve the gross issue of global warming, but also needs to approach the growing crisis of waste. The precedent of how architects may approach this dire situation and lead humanity in the re-appropriation of waste material is, maybe, the most effective direction that the industry can take. In the bronze age in northern Scotland, archaeological digs have uncovered societies that built their homes in no less than the refuse piles of their ancestors.
The midden heap not only represented a valuable mine of useable material, but the landfill itself caused mounds by which populations could excavate and build their houses within. Should this inspire a new wave of village architecture whereby previously disposed of goods are utilised to create a neo-vernacular.
This should be understood in the context of India and China, whose major rural population is now poised o the cusp of development, could a new wave of international migration that Melbourne and Australia are already experiencing case a rapid influx of Asian migrants, who, given the capacity to build, begin to exhibit entrenched regional architectural vernaculars and cosmic philosophies on the existing urban fabric as has been seen in other regional centres such as the city of greater Dandenong.
As climate changes the knowledge of climate responsive design inherent in vernacular architecture, may prove the combined architectural forward movement. As uch a question to ask is whether the architecture and urban landscape of the future will look more like the villages of the past? Does the development of cottage industries such as waving and broom making, combine with a recycling ethos in order to articulate a new architectural materiality?
As the island of plastic that now rivals some large countries in size grows, will architects see this as a resource and not a hindrance? To this effect, will Geelong establish a large ‘plastcile industry’ whereby plastic bags are hand woven into matting and a new form of thatch roofing, plastic bottles are filled with sand and turned into bricks, recyclable plastic is melted and machined to provide replacement for timber framing, Or, similar to the Japanese design of ceramic computer chips, does the tech industry design some form of ‘thinking-plastic’ which negates the mining of silicone and other materials from the earth?
By the adaption of the waste produced in the 20th century, is the building code of Australia completely re-written to account for refuse material, and, as a consequence of this, is there a nee for institutions to exhibit the testing of the physical properties of this material?
If the need for individuals who are practiced at looming pre se is great, will this call for a mass import of Indian villagers to exhibit their prowess as textiles within the realm of Geelong. Re-imagining the urban fabric in medium density vernacular and the kind of material industry and workforce that may require could redefine the working city as we know it.
Links:
Plastic Bottles:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LPxXH7rCSHQ
Weaving Plastic:
https://youtu.be/Hulr1kD5ask
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GkQyP9_1O-M
Wearable Technology
With the advent of wearable technology, is the future one that no longer needs laundries? As such the kind of environment where clothes can power batteries, think for themselves, alter the temperature of the individual wearing them, and even change colour may mean a drastic shift in the way that humans even interact with their immediate environs. No longer will beds need linen, if the Pyjama’s work to regulate the temperature of the sleeper, and this may have some consequence for the requirement of heating houses, offices and institutions.
One of the other implications of course, is, the use of thinking fabrics and materials on buildings. Is the implementation of solar-panel bricks, or even the outlay of ‘solar panel roads’ a possible invention for the future? Who is to say 100 years from now if the very fabric that our cities are made from don’t mediate the environment for us and procure our necessary power, water, and oxygen needs as they react to pollutants and play an active role in the regulation of our atmosphere.
Links:
Genevieve Dion:
https://youtu.be/LDCiCX78lFU
Photovoltaic Fabric (solar cell fabric)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell_fabric
Semiconductor Fabrics:
https://www.techbriefs.com/component/content/article/tb/stories/blog/32785
Interplanetary Civilisation:
It will come as no surprise that with the development of the afore mentioned technologies that the human race will begin to inhabit other planets. The two major considerations are the Moon, and, named for the roman God of War: Mars. Whilst this may not appear to be of significance to Geelong, the idea that space traffic will need to spaceport somewhere, and the consideration of the minerals and ore that will undoubtedly be brought back to planet earth brings new consideration to the city of Geelong and the Infrastructure required for the acceptance and the development of new inter-planetary communication and transit.
This may require the city of Geelong to create storage facilities for the imported materials, but also, consideration needs to be given to the kind of technologies that will be inherent in the colonisation of Mars and their effect on the built environment of earth. This includes the use of closed cycle carbon systems that could radically effect the economic and viability of the future agrarian landscape. Will the possible use of carbon accelerating micro organisms have any drastic effect on the exterior (or interior) built form and urban landscape, how will the city infrastructure respond to the growth of on-site food and bio-fuel production through the use of microorganisms that allow for the accelerated growth of food production?
As the use of fossil fuels is laid into the prehistory of a technologically advanced future is the processing of replacement fuels done in a centralised capacity, or, will the building of the future provide for on-site refining of the fuels and oils that are used at a domestic scale, and that propel rockets, transport systems, and possibly become building coolant systems like those found currently in car radiators. In an effort to effect our climate will the use of liquid fuels be utilized en masse through our cities as the steam once was in New York?
More importantly however, will be the need to supply the colonies on other planets with the materials they need to establish themselves before they can start reciprocating through commercial edifice. As such, Geelong is poised in a perfect position to become a major Australian trading port, given the existing transit lines and its position in relation to the orbital position of the moon and of Mars. In order to enable year round transit between colonies and direct communication, between the planets, Geelong represents the diamond in the belt of Victoria for providing a unique connection with interplanetary communication. As such, due consideration should be given to how and where Geelong offers opportunity for the development of cargo into space. As this industry develops, the old manufacturing centre may find a niche to the maintenance and production of trafficable interplanetary housing.
In the mid-19th century close to 160000 portable houses were imported to Melbourne by ship in order to account for the drastic population boom. S such, the creation of off world colonies represents the perfect opportunity for cities to establish the required infrastructure and industries that will prove capable of mass producing housing to ship to other planets. Is it that Geelong finds itself in the near future creating a central hub of pre-packaged technologically advanced low-atmosphere houses, making it a central node of import of high tech materials and the production of high strength lightweight neo-organic materials such as ‘spider-steel’?
Links:
Mars:
Stephen Petranek:
https://www.ted.com/talks/stephen_petranek_your_kids_might_live_on_mars_here_s_how_they_ll_survive?language=en&utm_campaign=tedspread&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=tedcomshare
Dr. Joel Levine:
https://youtu.be/YzhSmnGcSkE
Closed Carbon Cycle:
Lisa Dyson:
https://www.ted.com/talks/lisa_dyson_a_forgotten_space_age_technology_could_change_how_we_grow_food?language=en&utm_campaign=tedspread&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=tedcomshare
Moon:
https://youtu.be/-dL28N5yPmQ
Xavier de Kestelier:
https://www.ted.com/talks/xavier_de_kestelier_adventures_of_an_interplanetary_architect?utm_campaign=tedspread&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=tedcomshare
Orbital Space Colonies:
Joe Strong:
https://youtu.be/rQNisRKh-iU
Carbon Capture:
The development of ingenious soltions to climate change and the restitution of earth are in plenitude. One of the major considerations is the availability of these schemes to be incoroporated into the infrastructure and olso building fabric of our urban environments. The idea that mechanised devices may accomplich both the goals or correcting the carbon emissions of the previous century and, also shielding our domiciles from the elements represents a bounty of possibility. More than ever the human race is concerned with maintaining and correcting the havok it represents to the eco system and atmosphere. Yet belief that verticle green space represents the actual solution to the problem of carbon emission maybe slightly naive, as, those areas that it is most successful are usually high yield environments that do not pose the same kind of difficulty as the extreme conditions of the Australian summer. As such, architects and planners should think of ways to contrive the reduction of CO2 by the use of the urban built form itself. Whether it be coupled with solar and wind turbines along freeways and rail tacks, and used as highway barriers, or, implemented as an intrinsic part of the built form, the systems used in the future will be intrinsically linked to those of today, whether we recognise them or not.
Links:
Jennifer Wilcox:
https://www.ted.com/talks/jennifer_wilcox_a_new_way_to_remove_co2_from_the_atmosphere?utm_campaign=tedspread&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=tedcomshare
Future Computing:
Whilst the current systems of computers are essentialy static, with the growth of bio-organics and nanotechnology, what will the future systems of communication look like? How will our urban environments implement these systems, and will they look more familiar than we think?
The idea that trees can communicate is old, yet since the 1970’s research into the wy forests work has shown that indeed trees do communicate with one another. This is remarkable for understanding our existing world, but how long will it take for scientists and the computer industry to recognise the implications for modern technological advancement and the management of mass data?
Links:
Suzanne Simard:
https://www.ted.com/talks/suzanne_simard_how_trees_talk_to_each_other?language=en&utm_campaign=tedspread&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=tedcomshare
Genetic Manipulation:
Research into the field of cloning and genetic manipulation may completely redefine the future of humanity as we know it, will humans even require half of what they do now in regards to infrastructure and the built form if indeed they can genetically manipulate themselves in order to do without? What will the stadiums and sports in the future look like when the capacity to fly a broom is genetically engineered into the human species? Whilst it is either science fantasy or science fiction, the idea that humans could manipulate their world so much that they have the capacity to mentally bend atoms and direct energy is simply a matter of time. Consideration to blue-tooth, wifi, gps as implants is of great importnce, how will our cities reflect these new found capacities? How will the society react when the new humans come off the production lines? Will they revolt? Will they welcome the innovation?
Links:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetic_engineering
Perhaps The Opposite is True:
Whilst the above is certainly something to think about, the opposite is true also. The ide that civilisation always tends in the direction of advancement is a myth. What will our future look like? No one can tell. Perhaps instead of a technologically advances space faring civilisation, the human species yet again plunges into the dark ages and a post apocalyptic world is represented in 100 years (or even sooner) as proletariat collectivism takes the power out of the hands of those who currently have it. It may very well be that our future world is nothing like what we imagine. Movies like water world, the book of eli, V for vendetta, the matrix, doomsday, or I am legend may be more prophetic than we realize.
As such some consideration should be given to whether or not Geelong is in a’dystopic’ future, where humans have found themselves trapped in quarantine zones from the zombie plague, or if they simply live in small hamlets within greater disaster areas?
Did the Great Fire of 2056 that destroyed all urban centres and lef 1/100 000th of the population also take away water supply, or did the survivors carve out a completley new form of living an society based off the remnants of our global world? Has the population resorted to the early 19th century south eastern Chinese boat cities in an effort to regain land, as such, an underwater geelong looks like a floating city anchored to the top of Deakin?
The possibilities are endless.
End
Above is an outline of some of the current technologies tht will influence not only our immediate future, but will help to redefine the way that we live. While they are an indication only, they give a small insight into the broad spectrum of how our cities may develop.They also are an instrumental source of inspiration for those ho may be concerned with the future of architecture or society in general, and represent the cutting edge of human technological development. When designing for the future, the time is to act now, and the key is to remember that anything is possible. How we, as humans, react to these developments is entirely another question. What these developments may cause as a consequence of their inclusion into human society must also be considered.
Yet the scope is much greater than the outlined, the use of robots, the invention of human like response in the robot industry, the ever watching Panopticon of CCTV and big brother, the current development of flying cars, using drones as a means to deliver food, medical services (in Africa they have begun using drones to supply urgent organs and blood for transplant) or even bombs! (recent assasination attempts in Venezuela used drones to deliver explosives) and more: all will play a part on the future of our urban environment.
A substantial component will be geo-political trends, as large population groups such as China and India begin to play a far more active roe in the international development. Whose to say that espionage wont have the Japanese developed space lift in the hands of the Chinese within a year or so? What would that mean for Geelong? One important factor to remember is: there will be inequality, war, natural disasters and refugees that will indubitably shape the future, these things are a certainty. How will they effect the future of Geelong, will Australians even be speaking English? Only you can tell.
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